From: Bill Morrow (penzance_at_icanect.net)
Date: Mon Dec 28 1998 - 01:35:05 EST
Randal...
my guess is that in 10 years no one will recognise ANYTHING that we are using today
as much more than quaint museum pieces..
also, DVD is already here for data storage.. wit. MS Encarta..
would i pay for DVD.. you bet.. :-)
do i watch movies, sure i do, on rare occasions.. :-)
more often i run encarta..
morrow's rule #1.
the more space there is, the louder the cry for more space...
okok..
i know that you are closer to the market, but i'm older and i have seen the changes
in the last 15 years, and the rate of acceleration is increasing.. feverishly so..
Y2K..!!! HAH..!!
everything will be replaced by then..!! :-))
Randal Whittle wrote:
> At 03:30 PM 12/26/98 -0500, you wrote:
> >Is there any value (present or expected) to the DVD CD? I'm not into
> >movies, and there doesn't seem to be anything else they are used for --
> >and at the moment I use OS2 so its a moot point anyway, but I'm told that
> >support is coming.
>
> Over Thanksgiving I was speaking with a person who works for a software
> company that regularly publishes large database items on CD. Their most
> recent product required 3 CD's to put everything on it.
>
> He mentioned that when CD's first came out, it was a godsend for his
> section of the industry--they had more room than they knew what to do with
> and rarely ever filled a CD to capacity.
>
> But as search & database engines, as well as CPU's, have gotten more
> powerful (such that searching hundreds of megabytes of info is relatively
> painless), companies like his got more ambitious about putting more and
> more data into their database packages. So now, instead of giving you a
> CD, you get 2 or 3 or even more CD's in a package.
>
> It is his contention that when DVD drives get widespread (he didn't
> estimate a figure) enough, CD's will largely be supplanted by DVD's, and
> products like their most recent one will all fit on that one DVD instead of
> a 3 CD's (not certain of the numbers, but as I understand it DVD holds 2.6
> GB? That would be 4 CDs' worth It may even hold 4+ GB if commercially
> pressed--feel free to chime in if you know more, list).
>
> And writable DVD drives are available as of this month. Only $700. The
> cheapest CD-R's go for around $200+, and when they first came out they were
> well in excess of $1,000. DVD's have a pretty good start.
>
> Now to your question...would I go out of my way to get a DVD drive in my
> new ThinkPad, even though I don't intend to watch DVD movies on it? If it
> was convenient--only marginally more expensive than a standard CD drive,
> yes. But if I was spending any significant amount of money in excess (say,
> $100 or more), no, I wouldn't.
>
> The fact of the matter is you're just making a bet as to whether DVD will
> become ubiquitious as a means of computer data distribution in the near
> future--sometime before you decide you Thinkpad is obsolete and replace it
> anyway. If you're like me, I've averaged 2 or 3 years per ThinkPad. Do I
> think DVD will become widespread for data distribution in 3 years? Not at
> all. In 5 years? Maybe. In 10? Quite likely. So for me, the DVD would
> be used with CD's and nothing else for quite some time to come and by the
> time there *were* DVD computer data discs...I'd be on to a new machine.
>
> CD's spread wide and fast, but truthfully, they didn't have any real
> competition. DVD does--its call the CD, and it first has to supplant an
> already large installed base. Sure, you can read CD's in a DVD drive, but
> DVD drives are relatively slow at it. Most people are thinking, "Gee, I'm
> only going to use CD's in it anyway, so why have a DVD drive--which I'll
> never put DVD discs into--and have it read my CD's at 6x speed (or whatever
> it is) when the "regular" CD player does it at 32X speed and does it for
> $200 less?" Its obstacles like those that will make the road a little
> tougher for DVD than it was for CD's, which didn't have to supplant
> anything but its own price (I remember paying $350 for a *used* 150
> KB/s--that's 1x (2x & higher multi-speed drives hadn't been invented
> yet)--CD reader and knowing I had gotten a *good* deal, back in 1991 or so.
> Now for less than $50 you can get one that reads at 32x speed.
>
> With that in mind, I personally will just wait until I actually *see* a
> computer-data DVD before I think about buying a DVD drive.
>
> ----
> Randal Whittle rwhittle_at_usa.net
> "Did you really think you could call up the Devil and ask him to behave?"
> -Fox Mulder on T.V.'s "X-Files" speaking to an occult practitioner
-- Live Long and Prosper, Happy trails...** Bill Morrow ** :-) WEB page http://thinkpads.com Thinkpad User Community: http://thinkpads.com/enter.html bill_at_thinkpads.com, morrow1_at_compuserve.com, morrow_at_treco.net 770X-7AU(8.1gig, 261meg), 760ED(3.0gig, 104meg), 701C(6.3gig, 40meg), 755CE(no gig, 40meg), 750C(no gig, 4meg), IBM WorkPad(1meg)
Including, but not limited to, Subject to prior sale, Your mileage will vary, Done on a closed road with a professional driver AND Do not try this at home..
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