Re: [Thinkpad] ThinkPads about to jump the shark?

IF this IBM news is true .. it is NOT reassuring to this IBM customer.

When I received my two IBM Thinkpad A31p notebooks as that model's end
approached, I was shocked to see the label "made in China" .. and am
severely disappointed by the news of the day that Big Blue is shedding
its PC business, apparently including the ThinkPad line.

I am looking at this development in a broader context than the immediate
news .. so it is somewhat OT to some of the devotees of this list.

Having been in technical product markets during my 30 plus years career
-- including international market development for a major Detroit
supplier of OEM products, I have learned that there is only ONE Coca
Cola market, everyone else can be successful as niche players. The
analogy is applicable to the notebook market I believe. The segment
that is high-end, leading edge with superior service is what in effect
IBM's ThinkPad's niche is, and why I have now my 4th acquisition,
starting with the "755".

There is also a larger issue for multi-nationals like IBM, a US
domiciled -- US corporation. It is absolutely incomprehensible why such
advance technology product operations are transferred to COMMUNIST
CHINA. Not only are such firms giving up on domestic sourcing but the
downstream consequences are yet to play out, including:

    1. Recent US trade agreements, over the past 20 years, (signed by
    democrat presidents, e.g., NAFTA and WTO), have been beneficial to
    the American consumer via wider product choice at generally lower
    prices from developing economies. The effect from such agreements
    is benign vis-a-vis Chile (a developing economy) for agricultural
    exports (to grab an example); while it may impact on some (narrow)
    segment of US domestic producers, the resource base of Chile is on
    the margin, thus not overwhelming our domestic producers, with the
    concept of "comparative advantage" as the driver of trade
    development. Another developing country, COMMUNIST CHINA, presents
    a totally different picture; it possesses a HUGE resource base (low
    cost labor) giving it "absolute advantage" vis-a-vis any developed
    economy; Ominously, COMMUNIST CHINA has political/military/econmic
    aims that are hostile to AMERICAN security and interests. Thus we
    are nurturing, via our run-away trade with COMMUNIST CHINA, the
    tiger puppy that will maul us when it matures .. may even kill us.
    (I think it was Lenin who stated that capitalists will sell the rope
    with which they will be hung .. this is still a valid observation,
    sadly.) It is our huge and growing trade deficit with COMMUNIST
    CHINA .. a deficit with no end in sight .. that provides the
    resource and multiplier enabling COMMUNIST CHINA to pursue its
    global aims at our expense; we are feeding their accelerated
    build-up of their military capabilities, economic prowess, and
    domestic infrastructure.

    2. Loss of know-how and experience in the US labor force; this is a
    resource that is taken for granted because we have grown into it as
    technologies evolved on our shores -- and make no mistake about it,
    the US has been the epicenter for technology development following
    WWII. Moreover, it has been the intersection of our domestic
    economic policies, out technology, and our entrepreneurial
    environment, and a skilled labor pool that has made AMERICA an
    economic power and enabled our preeminent defense posture. An
    effect of our current trade policies is thus to weaken us
    domestically, because once our skill and manufacturing base
    atrophies, we are literally at the mercy of foreign suppliers for
    materials that may be critical to our national defense (an example
    now playing out is also the "tool and die" segment); some might say
    that this "critical skills" argument is dated -- it is still a
    valid, I submit.

    3. Loss of the manufacturing base in the US, via wholesale transfer
    to COMMUNIST CHINA. The magic of primary manufacturing jobs has
    been that for each new one created, there is a spill over effect of
    2 to 4 additional jobs created on periphery. And I submit that this
    multiplier works both ways, when we add such jobs, and when we lose
    them by relocation abroad. It is still a valid consideration that
    wealth is created primarily in manufacturing a product, and he who
    manufactures has the advantage of developing new technologies to
    expand that advantage.

    4. Role of US domiciled multi-nationals. These are the IBMs, the
    BOEINGs, the GEs, the INTELs .... The issue of US foreign
    investment in the post WWII era focused largely on western European
    countries and Japan. Our policies were largely shaped by the cold
    war issues, to keep these countries in our sphere of influence.
    Thus national interest and investment/trade policies overlapped and
    were mutually supportive. Can we say the same today? ABSOLUTELY
    NOT WHEN LOOK AT COMMUNIST CHINA. Thus we must ask anew, should
    there be a US national interest consideration in how US corporations
    behave on this stage? Should we scream at our politicians to wake
    up and look at the long term effects of the current implementation
    of the existing trade policies.

    5. Lastly, for every dollar of persistent trade deficit, a dollar
    is NOT available for domestic savings and investment ..

So, IBM, if you actually are pursuing this spin off to Chinese
interests, you are actively participating in the deconstruction of
America's economy and national security. FOOD for thought.

Frank Keresztes-Fischer

Chris Schumann wrote:

>IBM is looking to sell their entire PC and laptop lines.
>
>How long do you think it will take before a useful ThinkPad becomes a fond
>memory? Or is it possible that someone will take up the mantle and
>continue to make excellent laptops with unmatched support?
>
>_______________________________________________
>Thinkpad mailing list
>Thinkpad@stderr.org
>http://stderr.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/thinkpad
>
>
>

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Received on Fri Dec 3 14:16:57 2004