Re: [Thinkpad] ThinkPads about to jump the shark?

EXCELLENT post Frank!!!!!!

It really describes the big picture... China in 30 years will make our
current concerns with Iran and North Korea a joke...

Ron

 
--- Frank K-F <ferko@attglobal.net> wrote:

> IF this IBM news is true .. it is NOT reassuring to this IBM
> customer.
>
> When I received my two IBM Thinkpad A31p notebooks as that model's
> end
> approached, I was shocked to see the label "made in China" .. and am
>
> severely disappointed by the news of the day that Big Blue is
> shedding
> its PC business, apparently including the ThinkPad line.
>
> I am looking at this development in a broader context than the
> immediate
> news .. so it is somewhat OT to some of the devotees of this list.
>
> Having been in technical product markets during my 30 plus years
> career
> -- including international market development for a major Detroit
> supplier of OEM products, I have learned that there is only ONE Coca
> Cola market, everyone else can be successful as niche players. The
> analogy is applicable to the notebook market I believe. The segment
> that is high-end, leading edge with superior service is what in
> effect
> IBM's ThinkPad's niche is, and why I have now my 4th acquisition,
> starting with the "755".
>
> There is also a larger issue for multi-nationals like IBM, a US
> domiciled -- US corporation. It is absolutely incomprehensible why
> such
> advance technology product operations are transferred to COMMUNIST
> CHINA. Not only are such firms giving up on domestic sourcing but
> the
> downstream consequences are yet to play out, including:
>
> 1. Recent US trade agreements, over the past 20 years, (signed
> by
> democrat presidents, e.g., NAFTA and WTO), have been beneficial
> to
> the American consumer via wider product choice at generally lower
> prices from developing economies. The effect from such
> agreements
> is benign vis-a-vis Chile (a developing economy) for agricultural
> exports (to grab an example); while it may impact on some
> (narrow)
> segment of US domestic producers, the resource base of Chile is
> on
> the margin, thus not overwhelming our domestic producers, with
> the
> concept of "comparative advantage" as the driver of trade
> development. Another developing country, COMMUNIST CHINA,
> presents
> a totally different picture; it possesses a HUGE resource base
> (low
> cost labor) giving it "absolute advantage" vis-a-vis any
> developed
> economy; Ominously, COMMUNIST CHINA has
> political/military/econmic
> aims that are hostile to AMERICAN security and interests. Thus
> we
> are nurturing, via our run-away trade with COMMUNIST CHINA, the
> tiger puppy that will maul us when it matures .. may even kill
> us.
> (I think it was Lenin who stated that capitalists will sell the
> rope
> with which they will be hung .. this is still a valid
> observation,
> sadly.) It is our huge and growing trade deficit with COMMUNIST
> CHINA .. a deficit with no end in sight .. that provides the
> resource and multiplier enabling COMMUNIST CHINA to pursue its
> global aims at our expense; we are feeding their accelerated
> build-up of their military capabilities, economic prowess, and
> domestic infrastructure.
>
> 2. Loss of know-how and experience in the US labor force; this
> is a
> resource that is taken for granted because we have grown into it
> as
> technologies evolved on our shores -- and make no mistake about
> it,
> the US has been the epicenter for technology development
> following
> WWII. Moreover, it has been the intersection of our domestic
> economic policies, out technology, and our entrepreneurial
> environment, and a skilled labor pool that has made AMERICA an
> economic power and enabled our preeminent defense posture. An
> effect of our current trade policies is thus to weaken us
> domestically, because once our skill and manufacturing base
> atrophies, we are literally at the mercy of foreign suppliers for
> materials that may be critical to our national defense (an
> example
> now playing out is also the "tool and die" segment); some might
> say
> that this "critical skills" argument is dated -- it is still a
> valid, I submit.
>
> 3. Loss of the manufacturing base in the US, via wholesale
> transfer
> to COMMUNIST CHINA. The magic of primary manufacturing jobs has
> been that for each new one created, there is a spill over effect
> of
> 2 to 4 additional jobs created on periphery. And I submit that
> this
> multiplier works both ways, when we add such jobs, and when we
> lose
> them by relocation abroad. It is still a valid consideration
> that
> wealth is created primarily in manufacturing a product, and he
> who
> manufactures has the advantage of developing new technologies to
> expand that advantage.
>
> 4. Role of US domiciled multi-nationals. These are the IBMs,
> the
> BOEINGs, the GEs, the INTELs .... The issue of US foreign
> investment in the post WWII era focused largely on western
> European
> countries and Japan. Our policies were largely shaped by the
> cold
> war issues, to keep these countries in our sphere of influence.
> Thus national interest and investment/trade policies overlapped
> and
> were mutually supportive. Can we say the same today? ABSOLUTELY
> NOT WHEN LOOK AT COMMUNIST CHINA. Thus we must ask anew, should
> there be a US national interest consideration in how US
> corporations
> behave on this stage? Should we scream at our politicians to
> wake
> up and look at the long term effects of the current
> implementation
> of the existing trade policies.
>
> 5. Lastly, for every dollar of persistent trade deficit, a
> dollar
> is NOT available for domestic savings and investment ..
>
> So, IBM, if you actually are pursuing this spin off to Chinese
> interests, you are actively participating in the deconstruction of
> America's economy and national security. FOOD for thought.
>
> Frank Keresztes-Fischer
>

=====
Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must undergo the fatigues of supporting it. - Thomas Paine
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Received on Fri Dec 3 14:38:14 2004